Pre-Match Analysis: Aston Villa vs Everton (Premier League 2024)

Introduction

The upcoming Premier League fixture between Aston Villa and Everton on September 14, 2024, is set to be a crucial encounter for both teams. Aston Villa, who have had a relatively strong start to the season, will be looking to capitalize on their home advantage at Villa Park. On the other hand, Everton, under the management of Sean Dyche, are desperate to turn their season around after a dismal start. This analysis will delve into the chances of Aston Villa winning, Everton winning, or the match ending in a draw, based on various factors including team form, injuries, historical performance, and tactical considerations.

Aston Villa's Form and Prospects

Current Form

Aston Villa have had a promising start to the 2024-25 season. They are currently competing in the Champions League, which is a testament to their upward trajectory over the past few seasons. Despite a mixed bag of results, including a 2-0 home defeat to Arsenal, Villa have shown resilience with victories over Leicester City and West Ham. Their ability to bounce back from setbacks is a positive sign for Unai Emery's side.

Key Players and Injuries

Villa will be without several key players due to injuries, including Boubacar Kamara, Tyrone Mings, Matty Cash, Diego Carlos, and Leon Bailey. However, the return of Jaden Philogene and Diego Carlos could provide a much-needed boost. Amadou Onana, a summer signing from Everton, has been in excellent form, scoring two goals in three games. His presence in midfield will be crucial against his former club.

Tactical Approach

Unai Emery's tactical acumen has been evident in Villa's performances. The team has shown flexibility in their formations and strategies, often adapting to the strengths and weaknesses of their opponents. With players like Ollie Watkins and Jhon Durán in attack, Villa have the firepower to exploit Everton's defensive frailties.

Everton's Struggles and Challenges

Current Form

Everton have had a torrid start to the season, losing all three of their opening Premier League games and conceding ten goals in the process. Their most recent defeat, a 3-2 loss to Bournemouth after leading 2-0, epitomizes their defensive disorganization and lack of game management. This poor form has left them at the bottom of the table, and they are in desperate need of a positive result.

Key Players and Injuries

Everton's injury list is extensive, with Jarrad Branthwaite, Nathan Patterson, Armando Broja, and Youssef Chermiti all sidelined. Captain Seamus Coleman is also a doubt. The absence of Branthwaite, in particular, has been felt in their defensive setup. Dominic Calvert-Lewin remains their primary goal threat, but he has struggled to find the net consistently.

Tactical Approach

Sean Dyche is known for his pragmatic and defensively solid approach. However, this season, Everton have been anything but solid at the back. The team has struggled to deal with crosses and set-pieces, and goalkeeper Jordan Pickford's save ratio has dropped significantly. Dyche will need to address these issues and instill confidence in his players if they are to stand a chance against Villa.

Historical Performance and Head-to-Head

Aston Villa and Everton have a long history, with this fixture being the most-played in English football league history. In recent years, Villa have had the upper hand, remaining unbeaten in their last ten league meetings with Everton (W7 D3). Villa have also kept seven clean sheets in these encounters, highlighting their defensive solidity against the Toffees.

Statistical Insights and Predictions

Opta Power Rankings and Simulations

According to Opta's pre-match simulations, Aston Villa have a 60.9% chance of winning, while Everton have an 18.4% chance. The likelihood of a draw stands at 20.7%. These statistics reflect the current form and overall strength of both teams.

Key Metrics

• Goals Conceded: Everton have conceded ten goals in three games, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities.
• Goals Scored: Villa have shown a balanced attack with contributions from multiple players, including Onana and Durán.
• Post-International Break Performance: Everton have lost eight of their last ten Premier League games following an international break, while Villa have won their last five such matches.

Conclusion

Aston Villa's Chances of Winning

Given their current form, tactical flexibility, and historical dominance over Everton, Aston Villa are the favorites to win this match. The return of key players and the presence of in-form individuals like Amadou Onana further bolster their chances.

Everton's Chances of Winning

Everton's chances of securing a victory are slim, considering their poor form, defensive issues, and injury woes. However, football is unpredictable, and a well-organized defensive display coupled with clinical finishing could see them snatch a win.

Chances of a Draw

A draw is a plausible outcome, especially if Everton manage to tighten up defensively and frustrate Villa's attacking efforts. Given the stakes for both teams, a cautious approach might lead to a stalemate.

In summary, Aston Villa are the clear favorites to win this encounter, but Everton's desperation for points and potential tactical adjustments could make for an intriguing contest. The most likely outcome, based on current form and statistical insights, is a victory for Aston Villa.