Pre-Match Analysis: Aston Villa vs Everton - Premier League 2024

Introduction

The upcoming Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Everton on September 14, 2024, at Villa Park is set to be a fascinating encounter. Both teams have had contrasting starts to the season, and this match could be pivotal for their respective campaigns. This analysis will delve into the chances of Aston Villa winning, Everton winning, or the match ending in a draw, based on various pre-match insights and statistics.

Aston Villa's Form and Prospects

Recent Performance

Aston Villa, under the management of Unai Emery, have had a promising start to the season. They have won both their away games against West Ham and Leicester but suffered a defeat at home to Arsenal. Villa's form has been buoyed by their qualification for the Champions League, which has added a layer of excitement and expectation around the club.

Key Players and Injuries

Villa's squad has been strengthened by the acquisition of Amadou Onana from Everton, who has already scored twice in three games. However, they will be without key players such as Boubacar Kamara, Tyrone Mings, Matty Cash, Diego Carlos, and Leon Bailey due to injuries. The potential return of Jaden Philogene and Diego Carlos could provide a boost.

Tactical Approach

Unai Emery's tactical acumen has been evident in Villa's performances. The team has shown resilience and the ability to grind out results, particularly in their away victories. Emery's focus on a solid defensive structure and quick transitions could be crucial against an Everton side struggling defensively.

Everton's Form and Challenges

Recent Performance

Everton have had a dismal start to the season, losing all three of their opening games and conceding ten goals in the process. Their most recent match saw them squander a 2-0 lead against Bournemouth, eventually losing 3-2. This poor form has left them at the bottom of the Premier League table.

Key Players and Injuries

Everton's squad has been plagued by injuries, with Jarrad Branthwaite, Nathan Patterson, Armando Broja, and Youssef Chermiti all sidelined. Captain Seamus Coleman is also a doubt. The absence of these key players has severely hampered Sean Dyche's ability to field a competitive team.

Tactical Approach

Sean Dyche's teams are typically known for their defensive solidity, but this season has been an exception. Everton have been disorganized at the back, and their inability to deal with crosses has been a significant weakness. Dyche will need to address these defensive frailties and instill confidence in his players to avoid another collapse.

Head-to-Head and Historical Context

Recent Meetings

Aston Villa have had the upper hand in recent encounters with Everton. They are unbeaten in their last ten league meetings, winning seven and drawing three. Villa have also kept seven clean sheets in these matches, highlighting their defensive dominance over Everton.

Historical Significance

This fixture is the most-played in English football league history, with all 212 meetings coming in the top division. The historical context adds an extra layer of intrigue, with both teams eager to assert their dominance.

Statistical Insights

Expected Goals (xG)

Everton have underperformed in front of goal and conceded more than they should have, according to xG metrics. This suggests that their poor form is not just down to bad luck but also structural issues within the team.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta supercomputer gives Aston Villa a 60.9% chance of winning, while Everton have an 18.4% chance of securing all three points. The likelihood of a draw stands at 20.7%. These statistics reflect the current form and capabilities of both teams.

Psychological and Off-Field Factors

Managerial Uncertainty

Everton's off-field issues, including the uncertainty surrounding Sean Dyche's future and the potential takeover by John Textor, have created a volatile environment. This instability could further impact the players' performance on the pitch.

Fan Expectations

Aston Villa's fans are optimistic about their team's prospects, especially with the Champions League campaign on the horizon. In contrast, Everton's supporters are frustrated and anxious, given their team's poor start and the ongoing ownership saga.

Conclusion

Aston Villa's Chances of Winning

Aston Villa are the favorites to win this match, given their superior form, tactical stability under Unai Emery, and the psychological boost of playing at home. The absence of key players is a concern, but their depth and recent performances suggest they can overcome these challenges.

Everton's Chances of Winning

Everton's chances of winning are slim. Their defensive vulnerabilities, coupled with injuries to key players and off-field distractions, make it difficult to see them securing a victory. Sean Dyche will need to inspire a significant turnaround in performance to achieve a positive result.

Probability of a Draw

While a draw is possible, it is less likely given the current form of both teams. Everton's defensive issues and Villa's attacking prowess suggest that the home side will find a way to break through and secure the win.

In summary, Aston Villa are well-positioned to win this match, with Everton facing an uphill battle to avoid another defeat. The most likely outcome is a Villa victory, followed by a draw, with an Everton win being the least probable scenario.