Match Analysis

Match Report: Brighton & Hove Albion vs West Ham United

Competition: English Premier League Date: 2025-04-26 Kick-off: 14:00:00+00:00 Venue: The American Express Community Stadium (Amex Stadium)

1. Final Score: Brighton 3 - 2 West Ham

Brighton & Hove Albion 3 (Ayari 13', Mitoma 89', Baleba 90'+2') West Ham United 2 (Kudus 48', Soucek 83')

Key Reasons Behind the Scoreline:

The final score reflects a dramatic and frantic encounter decided by a stunning late Brighton comeback. Key factors included:

Individual Brilliance: The match featured exceptional long-range strikes from Brighton's Yasin Ayari and Carlos Baleba, the latter proving decisive.
West Ham's Defensive Collapse: Leading 2-1 with just minutes remaining, West Ham conceded twice in quick succession (89th and 92nd minutes), highlighting ongoing defensive frailties and an inability to manage the game's closing stages, a recurring theme in their recent matches.
Brighton's Resilience and Impact Substitutions: Despite falling behind late on, Brighton showed significant character to fight back. Substitutes Kaoru Mitoma and Brajan Gruda played pivotal roles in the equaliser and winner, demonstrating effective game management from Fabian Hurzeler.
Clinical Finishing (Late On): While both sides had chances, Brighton were clinical when it mattered most, converting their late pressure into goals.
West Ham's Reliance on Bowen: Jarrod Bowen was instrumental in creating both West Ham goals, but the team ultimately couldn't rely solely on his contributions to secure points.

2. Key Moments

The match was packed with significant events that shaped its narrative:

13' - GOAL (Brighton 1-0 West Ham): Yasin Ayari opened the scoring in spectacular fashion, curling a brilliant shot from ~25 yards into the top corner for his first Premier League goal.
32' - Woodwork (West Ham): Tomas Soucek came close to equalising, but his looping header was tipped onto the crossbar by Brighton keeper Bart Verbruggen.
~35' - Disallowed Goal (Brighton): Simon Adingra tapped in a rebound after a double save from Alphonse Areola, but the goal was correctly ruled out for an offside against Mats Wieffer in the build-up.
Half-Time Substitution (West Ham): Niclas Fullkrug, subject of fan chants after being benched following critical comments, replaced James Ward-Prowse.
48' - GOAL (Brighton 1-1 West Ham): Just minutes after the restart, Jarrod Bowen found Mohammed Kudus, whose close-range shot squirmed through Verbruggen's legs for the equaliser.
83' - GOAL (Brighton 1-2 West Ham): West Ham completed their comeback. Bowen delivered an excellent cross from the right, and Tomas Soucek met it with a powerful diving header at the far post.
89' - GOAL (Brighton 2-2 West Ham): Brighton responded late. Substitute Brajan Gruda headed a ball back across the six-yard box, and fellow substitute Kaoru Mitoma nodded home from close range.
90'+2' - GOAL (Brighton 3-2 West Ham): The decisive moment. Carlos Baleba received the ball ~30 yards out and unleashed a stunning, curling left-footed strike into the bottom corner past a static Areola, sparking wild celebrations.
Full Time: Graham Potter was jeered by sections of the home crowd upon his return to the Amex, compounding a painful defeat that extended West Ham's winless run to seven Premier League games. Despite the loss, West Ham's Premier League safety for the 2025-26 season was confirmed due to Ipswich Town's defeat elsewhere.

3. Notable Performances

Carlos Baleba (Brighton): The undisputed Man of the Match. Scored a sensational late winner from distance and delivered a commanding midfield performance, breaking up play and linking defence to attack effectively. Showcased his potential as a top-class midfielder.
Jarrod Bowen (West Ham): The standout performer for the visitors. Provided high-quality assists for both West Ham goals, demonstrating his creative importance and threat from the right flank. Reached 36 Premier League assists for the club.
Yasin Ayari (Brighton): Scored a memorable first Premier League goal with a superb strike to open the scoring and was involved in Brighton's build-up play.
Tomas Soucek (West Ham): Scored what looked like the winning goal with a determined diving header and was unlucky not to score earlier when hitting the bar. Provided an aerial threat.
Kaoru Mitoma & Brajan Gruda (Brighton): Both substitutes made a huge impact. Mitoma scored the crucial equaliser, while Gruda provided the assist for Mitoma and was involved in the build-up/corner leading to Baleba's winner.
Mohammed Kudus (West Ham): Scored the equaliser to bring West Ham back into the game.

4. Tactical Overview

Brighton & Hove Albion (Manager: Fabian Hurzeler)

Formation: Primarily operated in a 4-2-3-1 system.
Approach: As expected, Brighton aimed to dominate possession, particularly evident in the first half where they controlled the tempo. They built play from the back and looked to utilise width, with Simon Adingra lively early on. Hurzeler's side pressed effectively at times but showed the defensive vulnerabilities predicted pre-match, conceding twice.
In-game Adjustments: Brighton maintained their attacking philosophy even after falling behind. The introduction of Mitoma and Gruda provided fresh impetus and quality in the final third, proving decisive. The team showed significant character to stick to their game plan and snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

West Ham United (Manager: Graham Potter)

Formation: Began the match in a 3-5-2 formation, with wing-backs providing width. The introduction of Niclas Fullkrug at half-time likely shifted the dynamics, potentially closer to a 4-2-3-1 or a variation with Bowen playing more centrally or interchanging with Fullkrug.
Approach: West Ham struggled for control in the first half, often relying on counter-attacks and set-piece opportunities (like Soucek's header). They improved significantly after the break, looking more threatening with Fullkrug's presence and Bowen's creativity from wide areas proving crucial. Their approach seemed pragmatic, focusing on soaking up pressure and hitting on the break or via crosses, which yielded their two goals.
Weaknesses: Despite taking the lead, their inability to maintain defensive solidity in the final minutes was their undoing. The late collapse suggests ongoing issues with game management and concentration under pressure, undermining Potter's tactical setup.

Key Tactical Battle: The duel between Jarrod Bowen and Brighton's left-sided defence/midfield was pivotal, with Bowen creating both West Ham goals from that flank. Brighton's midfield duo (Baleba and Ayari/Hinshelwood) eventually gained the upper hand, culminating in Baleba's match-winning contribution.

5. Pre-match Analysis Comparison

The pre-match analysis provided a reasonable framework but ultimately failed to predict the dramatic nature and outcome of the game.

What was Right:

Team Form: Correctly identified both teams were in poor form. West Ham extended their winless streak, while Brighton ended theirs in dramatic fashion.
Brighton's Defensive Issues: The prediction that Brighton's defence was leaky ("conceding 2+ in recent games") proved accurate as they conceded twice again.
West Ham's Attacking Threats: Identified Bowen, Kudus, and Paqueta as key threats. Bowen and Kudus combined for the first goal, and Bowen assisted the second.
Brighton's Style: Correctly predicted Brighton would aim for a possession-based game.
West Ham's Counter-Attacking Potential: The analysis suggested West Ham might use counter-attacks via Bowen and Kudus, which was reflected in how their goals were created (Bowen assists from wide/transition).
Both Teams To Score (BTTS): The prediction of "Yes" for BTTS was correct.
Key Players: Mitoma (predicted key player) scored the equaliser. Bowen and Kudus (predicted key players) were central to West Ham's goals.

What was Wrong:

Predicted Score (1-1): Significantly off. The match finished 3-2.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals: The lean towards "Under 2.5 Goals" was incorrect, with five goals scored.
Game Narrative: Predicted a potentially "cagey affair" or a "tight contest" where neither side dominates. The reality was a thrilling end-to-end match with significant momentum swings and late drama.
West Ham's Pragmatism: While West Ham adopted elements of a pragmatic approach, their defence ultimately failed to deliver the solidity needed, especially late on. The prediction that a point would secure safety and potentially lead to a successful cautious approach didn't fully materialise in terms of the result achieved.
Outcome Probability: The analysis gave the Draw and Brighton Win equal 35% probability. While acknowledging Brighton as slight favourites, it didn't foresee their capacity for such a dramatic late win.

Closeness of Prediction:

The pre-match analysis accurately identified several key dynamics: the poor form of both teams, Brighton's defensive weaknesses, West Ham's key attacking players, and the likelihood of both teams scoring. However, it fundamentally misjudged the potential for goals and excitement, predicting a low-scoring, cagey draw. It failed to anticipate the dramatic late turnaround and the five-goal thriller that unfolded. Therefore, while capturing some underlying truths, it was not close in predicting the actual scoreline or the exhilarating narrative of the match.