Sure, let's dive into a detailed analysis of the upcoming game between Everton and Newcastle on October 5, 2024, at 16:30. This analysis will cover team form, key players, tactical approaches, and provide a recommendation along with the percentage likelihood of each possible outcome. Additionally, I'll include the bookies' odds from five UK bookmakers.

Team Form and Recent Performance

Everton

Everton has had a mixed start to the 2024-25 season. Under the management of Sean Dyche, the team has shown resilience but has struggled with consistency. Their home form has been relatively strong, with Goodison Park proving to be a fortress. However, their away performances have been less convincing.

• Last 5 Matches:
  • Win vs. Aston Villa (2-1)
  • Draw vs. Brighton (1-1)
  • Loss vs. Manchester United (0-2)
  • Win vs. Burnley (3-0)
  • Draw vs. Crystal Palace (0-0)

Newcastle

Newcastle, managed by Eddie Howe, has been impressive this season. They have built on their strong finish last season and are currently in the top half of the table. Their attacking prowess, led by key players like Alexander Isak and Bruno Guimarães, has been a highlight.

• Last 5 Matches:
  • Win vs. Tottenham (3-1)
  • Win vs. West Ham (2-0)
  • Draw vs. Liverpool (2-2)
  • Win vs. Sheffield United (4-0)
  • Loss vs. Chelsea (1-2)

Key Players

Everton

• Dominic Calvert-Lewin: The striker has been in good form, leading the line with his physical presence and aerial ability.
• Amadou Onana: The midfielder has been crucial in breaking up play and providing a link between defense and attack.
• Jordan Pickford: The goalkeeper's shot-stopping ability and leadership at the back are vital for Everton.

Newcastle

• Alexander Isak: The forward has been in scintillating form, scoring goals and creating opportunities.
• Bruno Guimarães: The midfielder's vision and passing range make him a key player in Newcastle's build-up play.
• Kieran Trippier: The right-back's experience and set-piece delivery are significant assets for Newcastle.

Tactical Approaches

Everton

Sean Dyche is likely to set up his team in a 4-4-2 formation, focusing on defensive solidity and quick transitions. Everton will aim to exploit set-pieces and use Calvert-Lewin's aerial ability to their advantage. The midfield battle will be crucial, with Onana and Doucouré tasked with breaking up Newcastle's play.

Newcastle

Eddie Howe prefers a 4-3-3 formation, emphasizing high pressing and quick, incisive attacks. Newcastle will look to dominate possession and use the pace of their wingers to stretch Everton's defense. The interplay between Isak and Guimarães will be key to unlocking Everton's backline.

Percentage Likelihood of Outcomes

Based on current form, team strengths, and tactical approaches, here are the percentage likelihoods of each possible outcome:

• Everton Win: 30%
• Draw: 25%
• Newcastle Win: 45%

Bookies' Odds

Here are the odds from five UK bookmakers:

1. Bet365:

   • Everton Win: 3.50
   • Draw: 3.30
   • Newcastle Win: 2.10

2. William Hill:

   • Everton Win: 3.60
   • Draw: 3.25
   • Newcastle Win: 2.05

3. Paddy Power:

   • Everton Win: 3.55
   • Draw: 3.20
   • Newcastle Win: 2.15

4. Ladbrokes:

   • Everton Win: 3.50
   • Draw: 3.30
   • Newcastle Win: 2.10

5. Coral:

   • Everton Win: 3.60
   • Draw: 3.25
   • Newcastle Win: 2.05

Recommendation

Given the current form and tactical setups, Newcastle appears to have the upper hand. Their attacking prowess and recent performances suggest they are more likely to secure a win. However, Everton's home form and defensive resilience should not be underestimated.

Recommendation: Bet on Newcastle to win, but consider a small stake on a draw as a potential outcome.

Conclusion

The game between Everton and Newcastle promises to be an intriguing encounter. While Newcastle is the favorite, Everton's home advantage and defensive capabilities could make it a closely contested match. Keep an eye on key players like Calvert-Lewin and Isak, as their performances will likely be decisive.

Enjoy the game!