Everton vs Newcastle

Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 4:30 PM UTC

Match Analysis

Everton vs. Newcastle: Match Analysis (2024-10-05)

Introduction

The upcoming Premier League clash between Everton and Newcastle United on October 5, 2024, promises to be an intriguing encounter. Both teams have had a mixed start to the 2024-25 season, and this match could be pivotal in shaping their respective campaigns. This analysis will delve into the form, key players, tactical setups, and provide a recommendation along with the percentage likelihood of each possible outcome. Additionally, we will include the latest odds from five UK bookmakers.

Team Form and Key Players

Everton:

  • Current Form: Everton has had a somewhat inconsistent start to the season, with a record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their first six games. They have shown flashes of brilliance but have struggled with consistency.
  • Key Players:
    • Dominic Calvert-Lewin: The striker has been in fine form, scoring 4 goals in the opening six matches. His aerial prowess and finishing ability make him a constant threat.
    • Amadou Onana: The midfielder has been a rock in the center of the park, providing both defensive stability and creative spark.
    • Jordan Pickford: The England international goalkeeper has made several crucial saves and will be key in keeping Newcastle at bay.

Newcastle United:

  • Current Form: Newcastle has had a strong start to the season, with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. They have been particularly impressive in attack, scoring 14 goals in their first six matches.
  • Key Players:
    • Alexander Isak: The Swedish striker has been in scintillating form, netting 6 goals so far. His pace and clinical finishing make him a constant threat.
    • Bruno Guimarães: The Brazilian midfielder has been pulling the strings in midfield, contributing with both goals and assists.
    • Kieran Trippier: The experienced right-back has been solid defensively and has also provided several assists with his excellent crossing ability.

Tactical Analysis

Everton:

  • Formation: Everton has predominantly lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation under manager Sean Dyche. This setup allows them to be solid defensively while also providing width in attack.
  • Strengths: Everton's main strength lies in their ability to counter-attack quickly. With pacey wingers and a target man in Calvert-Lewin, they can exploit spaces left by the opposition.
  • Weaknesses: Their defense has been shaky at times, particularly when dealing with set-pieces and crosses into the box.

Newcastle United:

  • Formation: Newcastle has been using a 4-3-3 formation under Eddie Howe. This formation allows them to dominate possession and create numerous goal-scoring opportunities.
  • Strengths: Newcastle's attacking trio has been in excellent form, and their midfield has been effective in both breaking up play and initiating attacks.
  • Weaknesses: Their defense, while generally solid, has been vulnerable to quick counter-attacks, which Everton could look to exploit.

Percentage Likelihood of Outcomes

Based on current form, key players, and tactical setups, here are the percentage likelihoods of each possible outcome:

  • Everton Win: 30%
  • Draw: 25%
  • Newcastle Win: 45%

Bookies Odds

Here are the latest odds from five UK bookmakers:

  1. Bet365:

    • Everton Win: 3.50
    • Draw: 3.40
    • Newcastle Win: 2.10

  2. William Hill:

    • Everton Win: 3.60
    • Draw: 3.30
    • Newcastle Win: 2.05

  3. Ladbrokes:

    • Everton Win: 3.55
    • Draw: 3.35
    • Newcastle Win: 2.15

  4. Paddy Power:

    • Everton Win: 3.50
    • Draw: 3.40
    • Newcastle Win: 2.10

  5. Coral:

    • Everton Win: 3.60
    • Draw: 3.30
    • Newcastle Win: 2.05

Recommendation

Given Newcastle's strong start to the season and their potent attacking options, they are the favorites going into this match. However, Everton's ability to counter-attack and the home advantage at Goodison Park should not be underestimated.

Betting Recommendation:

  • Primary Bet: Newcastle Win
  • Secondary Bet: Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Conclusion

The match between Everton and Newcastle United is set to be a fascinating encounter. While Newcastle appears to have the edge based on current form and attacking prowess, Everton's home advantage and counter-attacking threat could make for a closely contested game. Football fans can look forward to an exciting match with plenty of goal-scoring opportunities.