Everton vs. Newcastle: Match Analysis and Predictions

Date and Time:

October 5, 2024, 16:30 (UTC)

Team Form and Key Players

Everton

Current Form: Everton has had a mixed start to the 2024-25 Premier League season. They have shown resilience in defense but have struggled to find consistency in their attacking play. Their home form has been relatively strong, which could be a crucial factor in this match.

Key Players:

• Jordan Pickford: The England international goalkeeper has been in fine form, making crucial saves to keep Everton in games.
• Amadou Onana: The midfielder has been a key player in breaking up opposition play and providing a link between defense and attack.
• Dominic Calvert-Lewin: The striker has been Everton's main goal threat, and his aerial ability could be a significant factor against Newcastle's defense.

Newcastle

Current Form: Newcastle has been one of the standout teams this season, showing a blend of solid defense and potent attacking play. They have been particularly strong away from home, which bodes well for their trip to Goodison Park.

Key Players:

• Nick Pope: The goalkeeper has been a rock at the back, providing a sense of security for the defense.
• Bruno Guimarães: The Brazilian midfielder has been pulling the strings in midfield, dictating the tempo of the game.
• Alexander Isak: The forward has been in scintillating form, scoring goals and providing assists, making him a constant threat to any defense.

Tactical Analysis

Everton's Tactics:

Everton is likely to set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, focusing on a solid defensive structure and looking to hit Newcastle on the counter-attack. The full-backs will be crucial in providing width, while the midfield will need to be disciplined to prevent Newcastle from dominating possession.

Newcastle's Tactics:

Newcastle is expected to line up in a 4-3-3 formation, aiming to control the midfield and use their pace on the wings to stretch Everton's defense. They will look to press high and force Everton into mistakes, capitalizing on any defensive lapses.

Statistical Insights

• Head-to-Head: In the last 10 meetings, Newcastle has won 5, Everton has won 3, and there have been 2 draws.
• Goals Scored: Newcastle has averaged 2.1 goals per game this season, while Everton has averaged 1.3.
• Goals Conceded: Newcastle has conceded 0.9 goals per game, whereas Everton has conceded 1.5.

Bookies Odds

Here are the odds from five major UK bookmakers:

1. Bet365:

   • Everton Win: 3.50
   • Draw: 3.30
   • Newcastle Win: 2.10

2. William Hill:

   • Everton Win: 3.60
   • Draw: 3.25
   • Newcastle Win: 2.05

3. Ladbrokes:

   • Everton Win: 3.55
   • Draw: 3.35
   • Newcastle Win: 2.15

4. Paddy Power:

   • Everton Win: 3.50
   • Draw: 3.30
   • Newcastle Win: 2.10

5. Coral:

   • Everton Win: 3.60
   • Draw: 3.25
   • Newcastle Win: 2.05

Percentage Likelihood of Each Outcome

Based on current form, statistical analysis, and bookies' odds, here are the percentage likelihoods for each possible outcome:

• Everton Win: 25%
• Draw: 30%
• Newcastle Win: 45%

Recommendation

Given Newcastle's strong form and Everton's inconsistency, the most likely outcome appears to be a Newcastle win. However, Everton's home advantage and defensive resilience mean that a draw is also a plausible result. For those looking to place a bet, a Newcastle win or a draw would be the safest options.

Conclusion

This match promises to be an intriguing encounter between two teams with contrasting styles. Newcastle's attacking prowess and Everton's defensive solidity will be key factors in determining the outcome. While Newcastle is the favorite, Everton's home advantage could make this a closely contested game.