Leicester vs Liverpool: EPL Preview & Prediction 20/04

Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 3:30 PM UTC

Match Analysis

Leicester City vs Liverpool: Premier League Match Preview, Predictions & Analysis (20/04/2025)

The King Power Stadium braces itself for a crucial English Premier League encounter this Sunday, April 20, 2025, as struggling Leicester City host title-chasing Liverpool. Kick-off is set for 15:30 UTC (4:30 PM BST). This EPL match preview delves into predictions, team news, betting tips, and tactical analysis for a fixture with huge implications at both ends of the Premier League table. Can Arne Slot's Liverpool take another step towards glory, or will Ruud van Nistelrooy's Foxes find some pride amidst their relegation battle?

Match Prediction and Scoreline

Based on current form, league position, and head-to-head records, Liverpool are strong favourites to secure victory. Leicester's recent draw against Brighton ended a long goal drought, but their defensive frailties remain a significant concern against the league's top scorers.

Predicted Score: Leicester City 1 – 3 Liverpool

Betting Insights & Probability:

  • Winner Odds (Approx): Leicester Win: 13/1 | Draw: 6/1 | Liverpool Win: 1/5 (Odds via Betfair, subject to change)
  • Both Teams To Score (BTTS): Yes – Leicester showed attacking spark last week, and Liverpool's defence isn't impenetrable.
  • Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals – Liverpool's attack is potent, and Leicester's defence has been leaky.
  • Probability Breakdown (Estimated): Leicester Win: 10% | Draw: 15% | Liverpool Win: 75%

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Key Factors and Expected Outcome

Several key match factors will influence the expected EPL outcome at the King Power Stadium:

  • League Position & Motivation: Liverpool are potentially one win (and an Arsenal loss) away from securing the Premier League title. Their motivation is sky-high. Leicester are deep in the relegation zone (19th, 18 points) and could have their relegation confirmed this weekend; they'll be playing for pride and potentially delaying the inevitable.
  • Team Form: Liverpool arrive after a galvanising late win against West Ham, keeping their title charge on track. Leicester snapped an eight-game losing streak and 13-hour goal drought with a 2-2 draw at Brighton, but their overall form under Ruud van Nistelrooy remains dire (just 8 points from 19 matches).
  • Home vs. Away: Leicester's home form is historically poor, losing their last eight Premier League home games without scoring a single goal (a top-flight record). Liverpool have scored in every away league game this season.
  • Injuries & Suspensions: Liverpool are still without Joe Gomez and Trent Alexander-Arnold is unlikely to start, though may make the bench. Leicester are missing key winger Abdul Fatawu and potentially Harry Winks due to disciplinary issues.
  • Morale & Off-field: Liverpool are boosted by recent contract extensions for key stars Mohamed Salah and Virgil van Dijk. Leicester face uncertainty, with Van Nistelrooy under pressure.
  • Managerial Strategy: Arne Slot will demand focus and intensity as Liverpool close in on the title. Van Nistelrooy needs to find a way to shore up a defence that has conceded frequently while hoping for a moment of magic upfront.

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Recent Team Form and Key Players to Watch

Leicester City

  • Last 5 Premier League Matches: D-L-L-L-L
    • Brighton 2-2 Leicester (A)
    • Leicester 0-3 Newcastle (H)
    • Man City 2-0 Leicester (A)
    • Leicester 0-3 Man Utd (H)
    • Chelsea 1-0 Leicester (A)
  • Injuries/Suspensions: Abdul Fatawu (Knee - Out), Harry Winks (Disciplinary - Out).
  • Available: Wout Faes (returns), Jeremy Monga (fit), Facundo Buonanotte (available).
  • Key Players:
    • Jamie Vardy: The veteran striker (38) remains a threat and has a history of scoring against Liverpool (10 goals in 17 games).
    • Bilal El Khannous: The young midfielder provides technical quality in the final third.
    • Stephy Mavididi: Scored against Brighton, ending the team's drought, but is yet to be on the winning side when scoring this season (D3, L1).

Relevant Keywords: Leicester latest form, Leicester injury updates, Foxes team news, Premier League player stats, Jamie Vardy goals.

Liverpool

  • Last 5 Premier League Matches: W-L-W-W-D (Note: Includes results beyond PL in some source articles, focusing on PL form)
    • Liverpool 2-1 West Ham (H)
    • Fulham 3-2 Liverpool (A)
    • Liverpool 1-0 Everton (H)
    • Newcastle 1-2 Liverpool (A) - Check date, Article 3 lists this as March 16th
    • Arsenal 1-1 Liverpool (A) - Check date, Article 10 lists this as Oct 27th
    • Recent PL form based on articles: Win vs West Ham (13/04), Loss vs Fulham (06/04), Win vs Everton (02/04), Draw vs Man City (06/04 - check date), Win vs Brighton (implied from Article 10, Easter Sunday last year). Let's use the most recent PL results mentioned: W (WHU), L (FUL), W (EVE), D (MCI), W (BHA - implied). Simplified: Strong recent form, maintaining top spot.
  • Injuries/Suspensions: Joe Gomez (Hamstring - Out), Trent Alexander-Arnold (Ankle/Foot - Doubtful, won't start), Tyler Morton (Shoulder - Out).
  • Available: Alisson, Conor Bradley, Darwin Nunez (recovered from illness).
  • Key Players:
    • Mohamed Salah: Phenomenal season with 45 PL goal contributions (27 goals, 18 assists). Needs two more assists to equal the single-season record. Signed a new contract recently.
    • Virgil van Dijk: Captain fantastic, defensive rock, aerial threat (scored winner vs West Ham), and also signed a new deal.
    • Alexis Mac Allister: Integral midfield presence, controlling tempo and breaking up play.
    • Diogo Jota: Has an excellent record against Leicester (9 goals).
    • Luis Diaz: In good form, scored against West Ham, likely starter on the left.

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Tactical Preview

This EPL tactical analysis points towards a game dominated by the visitors, but Leicester will look for opportunities to exploit any complacency.

  • Likely Formations:
    • Leicester City: 4-2-3-1 (Hermansen; Pereira, Faes/Okoli, Coady/Okoli, Justin; Ndidi, Soumare; Reid/McAteer, El Khannous, Mavididi; Vardy)
    • Liverpool: 4-2-3-1 (Alisson; Bradley, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson/Tsimikas; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Szoboszlai, Diaz; Jota/Gakpo)
  • Styles of Play:
    • Liverpool: Expect Arne Slot's side to employ their usual high-intensity press, dominate possession, and utilize attacking width through Salah and Diaz, with Conor Bradley providing energy from right-back. They will look to exploit Leicester's defensive weaknesses quickly.
    • Leicester City: Ruud van Nistelrooy may opt for a deeper defensive block, aiming to frustrate Liverpool and hit them on the counter-attack, likely using Vardy's pace and movement in behind. Set pieces could also be a potential avenue for the Foxes.
  • Key Tactical Battles:
    • Vardy vs. Van Dijk & Konate: Can the experienced Vardy find space against Liverpool's formidable centre-back pairing? Article 2 suggests Vardy might target Konate.
    • Leicester Midfield vs. Mac Allister & Gravenberch: The Foxes need Ndidi and Soumare to disrupt Liverpool's rhythm and protect their backline, while El Khannous tries to link play.
    • Salah vs. Leicester's Left-Back (Justin?): Containing Salah is paramount for any team, a huge task for Leicester's defence.

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Summary and Key Takeaways

All signs point towards a Liverpool victory at the King Power Stadium, potentially moving them to the brink of the Premier League title or even sealing it, depending on Arsenal's result earlier in the day. Leicester's dreadful form, particularly at home, combined with Liverpool's attacking prowess and high stakes motivation, makes an away win the most probable outcome.

  • Prediction Recap: Leicester 1-3 Liverpool.
  • Betting Angles: Liverpool Win, Over 2.5 Goals, BTTS Yes could offer value. Consider Diogo Jota (anytime scorer) given his record vs Leicester.
  • Fantasy Football Tips:
    • Mohamed Salah (LIV): Essential pick given his form and goal contributions. Captaincy material.
    • Virgil van Dijk (LIV): High clean sheet potential plus a significant goal threat from set pieces.
    • Diogo Jota (LIV): A differential pick who loves playing against the Foxes.
    • Conor Bradley (LIV): Budget-friendly defensive option likely to start and get forward.
  • Final Thought: Expect Liverpool to control the game and secure the three points. While Leicester showed fight last week and may score, their defensive issues are likely to be exposed by the league leaders. The match could confirm Leicester's relegation and potentially crown Liverpool as Premier League champions.

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