Match Analysis

Pre-Match Analysis: Manchester City vs Brentford - Premier League 2024

Introduction

The upcoming Premier League clash between Manchester City and Brentford on September 14, 2024, promises to be an intriguing encounter. Manchester City, the reigning champions, have started the season in imperious form, while Brentford have shown resilience and capability despite the absence of their star striker, Ivan Toney. This analysis will delve into the factors that could influence the outcome of the match, including team form, key players, tactical setups, and potential absences.

Manchester City's Form and Key Players

Form

Manchester City have been in scintillating form at the start of the 2024/25 season. They have won all three of their Premier League matches, defeating Chelsea, Ipswich Town, and West Ham United with relative ease. The team has not tasted defeat in the Premier League since December 2023, showcasing their dominance and consistency.

Key Players

Erling Haaland: The Norwegian striker has been in phenomenal form, scoring seven goals in the first three matches, including two hat-tricks. However, there is uncertainty regarding his availability for the Brentford match due to the recent death of his close friend, Ivar Eggja. Haaland has been offered compassionate leave by Pep Guardiola, and his final decision on whether to play will significantly impact City's attacking prowess.
Kevin De Bruyne: The Belgian midfielder remains a crucial figure for City, orchestrating play and contributing with goals and assists. His recent performances, including a brace on international duty, underline his importance to the team.
Rodri: The Spanish midfielder's return from injury is a significant boost for City. His presence in the midfield provides stability and control, which will be vital against Brentford's dynamic attack.
Phil Foden: Although Foden has been recovering from an illness, his potential return to the lineup adds creativity and flair to City's attacking options.

Brentford's Form and Key Players

Form

Brentford have had a mixed start to the season, winning two of their first three matches against Crystal Palace and Southampton, but losing to Liverpool. Despite the departure of Ivan Toney, the team has shown resilience and adaptability under Thomas Frank's management.

Key Players

Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa: The attacking duo has been in good form, contributing goals and assists. Their ability to exploit spaces and create chances will be crucial for Brentford's hopes of causing an upset.
Thomas Frank's Tactical Setup: Brentford have adopted a more conservative approach this season, allowing opponents more passes per defensive action (PPDA). This tactical shift aims to make them more solid defensively, which will be tested against City's potent attack.

Tactical Analysis

Manchester City's Tactics

Pep Guardiola's side is known for their possession-based football, high pressing, and fluid attacking movements. The potential lineup for the match against Brentford could be a 4-1-4-1 formation, with Ederson in goal, a backline of Rico Lewis, Manuel Akanji, Ruben Dias, and Josko Gvardiol, Rodri as the defensive midfielder, and an attacking quartet of Savinho, Bernardo Silva, Kevin De Bruyne, and Jack Grealish supporting Erling Haaland (if available).

City's ability to control the midfield and create overloads in wide areas will be key to breaking down Brentford's defense. The movement and interplay between De Bruyne, Silva, and Grealish will be crucial in creating goal-scoring opportunities.

Brentford's Tactics

Thomas Frank is likely to set up his team in a compact and organized defensive structure, aiming to frustrate City's attackers and hit them on the counter. The absence of Ivan Toney means that Brentford will rely heavily on the pace and creativity of Mbeumo and Wissa to exploit any gaps left by City's high defensive line.

Brentford's recent tactical shift to allow more passes per defensive action suggests a more patient and disciplined approach, which could be effective in limiting City's chances and creating opportunities on the break.

Potential Absences and Their Impact

Erling Haaland

The uncertainty surrounding Haaland's availability due to compassionate leave is a significant factor. Haaland's goal-scoring form has been exceptional, and his absence would undoubtedly weaken City's attacking threat. However, City have enough depth and quality in their squad to cope with his potential absence, with players like Julian Alvarez and Phil Foden capable of stepping up.

Phil Foden and Savinho

Both players are doubts for the match due to fitness concerns. Foden's creativity and Savinho's pace and directness would be missed if they are unable to play. Their absence would place more responsibility on De Bruyne and Grealish to provide the attacking impetus.

Brentford's Injuries

Brentford will be without Igor Thiago, Aaron Hickey, Rico Henry, and Joshua Dasilva. These absences weaken their defensive options and could make it more challenging to contain City's attack. However, Brentford have shown resilience and adaptability in the past, and Thomas Frank will have a plan to mitigate these losses.

Predictions and Conclusion

Manchester City Win

Given their current form, depth of squad, and home advantage, Manchester City are the clear favorites to win this match. The Opta supercomputer predicts a 76.1% chance of a City victory, which aligns with their recent performances and dominance in the league.

Brentford Win

While Brentford have the potential to cause an upset, their chances are slim, with only a 9.7% probability of winning according to the Opta supercomputer. Their recent away record against top teams and the absence of key players further diminish their prospects.

Draw

A draw is a more plausible outcome than a Brentford win, with a 14.1% probability. If Brentford can execute their defensive game plan effectively and capitalize on counter-attacking opportunities, they could frustrate City and secure a point.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Manchester City are the overwhelming favorites to win this match, given their form, quality, and home advantage. Brentford will need to be at their very best and hope for some luck to get a positive result. The potential absence of Erling Haaland adds an element of uncertainty, but City's depth and tactical flexibility should see them through. A City win is the most likely outcome, but football is unpredictable, and Brentford will aim to defy the odds.