Match Analysis

Pre-Match Analysis: Southampton vs Manchester United (Premier League 2024)

Introduction

The upcoming Premier League fixture between Southampton and Manchester United on September 14, 2024, is set to be a crucial match for both teams. Manchester United, under Erik ten Hag, are looking to bounce back from a poor start to the season, while newly-promoted Southampton are eager to secure their first points. This analysis will delve into the chances of each team winning or the match ending in a draw, based on the pre-match reports and current form of both teams.

Manchester United's Form and Squad Analysis

Recent Performance

Manchester United have had a rocky start to the 2024/25 Premier League season. They have lost two of their first three matches, including a humiliating 3-0 defeat at home to Liverpool. This poor form has placed Erik ten Hag under significant pressure, with the team currently languishing in 14th place. The international break provided a much-needed respite, but the team needs to show significant improvement to climb up the table.

Squad Updates

Manuel Ugarte: The new signing from Paris Saint-Germain is expected to be available for the match against Southampton. Despite concerns about his fitness after a taxing international break with Uruguay, Ugarte's inclusion could be pivotal. His stats from the previous season indicate he is a significant upgrade over Casemiro, particularly in terms of passing accuracy, tackles, and possession won per 90 minutes.
Casemiro: The Brazilian midfielder has struggled this season, culminating in a poor performance against Liverpool. There is speculation that Ugarte might replace him in the starting lineup, which could rejuvenate United's midfield.
Injuries: Rasmus Højlund and Luke Shaw are still recovering from injuries and will not feature in this match. Their absence continues to be a blow for United, particularly in defense and attack.
Other Key Players: Bruno Fernandes remains a crucial player for United, tasked with unlocking Southampton's defense. Marcus Rashford, despite a poor start to the season, is likely to start as Ten Hag attempts to play him into form.

Tactical Considerations

Erik ten Hag is expected to deploy a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Ugarte potentially partnering Kobbie Mainoo in midfield. The defense will likely see Harry Maguire and Lisandro Martinez as the central pairing, with Diogo Dalot and Noussair Mazraoui as full-backs. The attacking trio behind the striker will include Fernandes, Rashford, and Alejandro Garnacho, with Joshua Zirkzee leading the line.

Southampton's Form and Squad Analysis

Recent Performance

Southampton, newly promoted to the Premier League, have had a tough start to the season, failing to secure any points in their opening matches. However, playing at home against a struggling Manchester United side presents an opportunity to turn their fortunes around.

Squad Updates

Southampton's squad has been relatively stable, with no major injury concerns reported. The team will rely on their cohesive unit and the home advantage to challenge Manchester United.

Tactical Considerations

Southampton are expected to play a possession-based game, as they have done in their previous matches. This approach could exploit Manchester United's midfield vulnerabilities, especially if Ugarte is not fully integrated into the team. The Saints will likely focus on pressing high and forcing errors from United's defense, which has been shaky this season.

Match Predictions

Manchester United Win

Pros:

Quality of Squad: Despite their poor form, Manchester United have a higher quality squad compared to Southampton. Players like Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford have the ability to change the game.
New Signings: The potential debut of Manuel Ugarte could stabilize United's midfield, providing better defensive cover and ball distribution.
Desperation for Points: United are desperate to bounce back from their recent defeats, and this urgency could drive them to perform better.

Cons:

Inconsistent Form: United's recent performances have been inconsistent, and the pressure on Erik ten Hag could affect the team's morale.
Injuries: The absence of key players like Højlund and Shaw weakens the team, particularly in defense.

Southampton Win

Pros:

Home Advantage: Playing at St. Mary's Stadium gives Southampton a significant boost, with the home crowd supporting them.
United's Vulnerabilities: Manchester United's defensive frailties and midfield issues could be exploited by a well-organized Southampton side.

Cons:

Lack of Quality: Southampton's squad lacks the individual quality that Manchester United possess, which could be a deciding factor.
Pressure of Promotion: As a newly-promoted team, Southampton might struggle to cope with the pressure of facing a top-tier team like Manchester United.

Draw

Pros:

Balanced Contest: Given United's poor form and Southampton's home advantage, a draw seems a plausible outcome.
Midfield Battle: If Ugarte is not fully fit, the midfield battle could be evenly matched, leading to a stalemate.

Cons:

Lack of Goals: Both teams have struggled to score goals this season, which could result in a low-scoring draw.

Conclusion

Based on the analysis, the chances of each outcome are as follows:

Manchester United Win: 50%
Southampton Win: 25%
Draw: 25%

Manchester United have the edge in terms of squad quality and the potential impact of new signings like Manuel Ugarte. However, their inconsistent form and injury concerns level the playing field somewhat, making a draw or a Southampton win plausible outcomes. The match promises to be a closely contested affair, with both teams eager to secure crucial points.