Pre-Match Analysis: Tottenham vs Arsenal, Premier League 2024

Introduction

The North London Derby between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal is one of the most anticipated fixtures in the Premier League calendar. The match scheduled for September 15, 2024, at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, promises to be a thrilling encounter. Both teams have had mixed starts to the season, and this game could be pivotal for their respective campaigns. This analysis will delve into the chances of Tottenham winning, Arsenal winning, or the match ending in a draw, based on the pre-match reports and current form of both teams.

Arsenal's Predicament

Injuries and Suspensions

Arsenal is facing a significant challenge with several key players potentially missing the derby. Captain Martin Ødegaard is a major doubt due to an ankle injury sustained during international duty with Norway. His absence would be a massive blow, as he is a crucial creative force in the team. Additionally, Declan Rice is suspended, and Mikel Merino is out with a fractured shoulder. These absences leave Arsenal's midfield severely weakened.

Potential Replacements

Cesc Fabregas, an Arsenal legend, has suggested that 17-year-old Ethan Nwaneri could replace Ødegaard. While Nwaneri is a promising talent, his lack of experience in such a high-stakes game could be a concern. Fabregas also mentioned Leandro Trossard as a potential midfield option alongside Thomas Partey and Jorginho. However, Trossard is more accustomed to playing on the wing, and his adaptation to a central role remains uncertain.

Manager's Perspective

Mikel Arteta has not ruled out Ødegaard entirely, indicating that a late fitness test will determine his availability. Arteta's comments suggest that Arsenal's medical team is working hard to get their captain fit for the game. However, even if Ødegaard plays, his effectiveness might be compromised due to the injury.

Tottenham's Situation

Recent Form

Tottenham has had a mixed start to the season, with a draw against Leicester, a defeat to Newcastle, and a convincing 4-0 win over Everton. The team has shown glimpses of quality but has struggled with consistency. The return of first-choice center-back Micky van de Ven and summer signing Dominic Solanke could provide a much-needed boost.

Tactical Considerations

Ange Postecoglou, Tottenham's manager, will be keen to exploit Arsenal's weakened midfield. The absence of Rice and potentially Ødegaard gives Tottenham an opportunity to dominate the central areas. Postecoglou's side will need to improve their final ball and killer instinct, as highlighted by Alan Shearer, who criticized their forward play in the recent match against Newcastle.

Key Players

Tottenham will rely heavily on their attacking trio, including Son Heung-Min and new signing Solanke. The midfield battle will be crucial, and players like Yves Bissouma and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg will need to step up to control the game.

Historical Context and Rivalry

The North London Derby is known for its intensity and unpredictability. Last season, the fixtures between these two teams were closely contested, with a 2-2 draw and a 3-2 win for Arsenal. The absence of Harry Kane, who has been a prolific scorer in this fixture, could tilt the balance slightly in Arsenal's favor. However, the current injury crisis at Arsenal might negate this advantage.

Betting Odds and Predictions

According to bet365, the odds for the match are as follows:

• Tottenham: 2/1
• Draw: 5/2
• Arsenal: 13/10

These odds suggest that Arsenal is slightly favored to win, but the match is expected to be closely contested.

Expert Opinions

Alan Shearer predicts a score-draw, considering the potential absences in Arsenal's midfield and Tottenham's need to improve their forward play. The Guardian's analysis also highlights the chippiness and unpredictability of the derby, suggesting that both teams have vulnerabilities that could be exploited.

Conclusion

Chances of Tottenham Winning

Tottenham has a decent chance of winning, especially if they can capitalize on Arsenal's weakened midfield. The return of key players like van de Ven and Solanke could provide the necessary boost. However, their inconsistency and poor forward play in recent matches are concerns that need addressing.

Chances of Arsenal Winning

Arsenal's chances hinge significantly on the fitness of Ødegaard and the ability of replacements like Nwaneri and Trossard to step up. If Ødegaard plays and is effective, Arsenal could control the game despite the absence of Rice and Merino. However, the injury crisis makes their task much more challenging.

Chances of a Draw

Given the historical context and the current form of both teams, a draw seems a plausible outcome. Both teams have vulnerabilities that the other can exploit, and the intense rivalry often leads to closely contested matches. A score-draw, as predicted by Alan Shearer, seems a likely result.

In conclusion, the North London Derby is set to be an exciting and unpredictable encounter. While Arsenal's injury woes give Tottenham a slight edge, the match could go either way, and a draw remains a strong possibility.