Pre-Match Analysis: Tottenham vs Arsenal - Premier League 2024

Introduction

The North London Derby between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal is one of the most anticipated fixtures in the Premier League calendar. Scheduled for September 15, 2024, this match promises to be a thrilling encounter, given the historical rivalry and the current form of both teams. This analysis will delve into the chances of Tottenham winning, Arsenal winning, or the match ending in a draw, based on the latest team news, form, and expert opinions.

Team News and Key Absences

Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham will be buoyed by the return of key players Micky van de Ven and Dominic Solanke. However, they will be without Richarlison and youngster Will Lankshear due to injuries. Yves Bissouma is also a doubt after sustaining a knock on international duty. The likely starting XI for Tottenham is expected to be:

Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Vicario; Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Udogie; Sarr, Bentancur; Kulusevski, Maddison, Son; Solanke

Arsenal

Arsenal, on the other hand, are facing significant challenges with key absences. Declan Rice is suspended, and Martin Odegaard is a major doubt due to an ankle injury. Mikel Merino is out with a fractured shoulder, and Riccardo Calafiori is also a doubt. Gabriel Jesus might return to the squad after a month-long absence. The likely starting XI for Arsenal is expected to be:

Predicted XI (4-3-3): Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Timber; Jorginho, Partey, Havertz; Saka, Trossard, Martinelli

Recent Form and Historical Context

Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham have had a mixed start to the 2024/25 season, with a draw against Leicester, a defeat to Newcastle, and a 4-0 win over Everton. Their performance has been inconsistent, particularly in forward positions, as highlighted by Alan Shearer. The absence of Harry Kane, who has historically been a key player in this fixture, is a significant loss.

Arsenal

Arsenal have started the season relatively well, sitting fourth with seven points from three games. However, their recent draw with Brighton and the absences of key midfielders could impact their performance. Historically, Arsenal have had the upper hand in this fixture, winning five of the last seven encounters.

Expert Opinions

The Stats Zone

The Stats Zone suggests that Arsenal have generally had the better of this fixture in recent years. However, the absences of Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard could give Tottenham a real chance of getting a positive result. They predict a double chance for Tottenham or a draw.

90min.com

90min.com highlights the injury concerns for Arsenal, particularly the uncertainty around Martin Odegaard's availability. They emphasize that the midfield will be a crucial battleground, and Arsenal's lack of depth in this area could be a significant disadvantage.

The Guardian

The Guardian provides a broader context of the rivalry, noting that both teams have had their struggles this season. They point out that Tottenham's sluggish start and Arsenal's injury woes make this a difficult match to predict. They suggest that the absence of Harry Kane and the potential absence of Odegaard and Rice could level the playing field.

Alan Shearer (Betfair)

Alan Shearer believes that the absences of Odegaard and Rice are a huge blow for Arsenal. He notes that Tottenham need to improve their forward play significantly to capitalize on Arsenal's weakened midfield. He predicts a tight game, potentially ending in a score-draw.

Betting Odds

According to bet365, the odds for the match are as follows:

• Tottenham to win: 2/1
• Draw: 5/2
• Arsenal to win: 13/10

These odds reflect the uncertainty surrounding the match, with Arsenal being slight favorites despite their injury concerns.

Conclusion

Tottenham's Chances

Tottenham have a decent chance of winning, especially with the return of key players like Van de Ven and Solanke. Their home advantage and Arsenal's weakened midfield could play in their favor. However, their inconsistent form and poor performance in forward positions need to be addressed.

Arsenal's Chances

Arsenal, despite their injury woes, have a strong squad and a good recent record in this fixture. If Odegaard and Calafiori are fit to play, their chances improve significantly. However, the absences of Rice and potentially Odegaard could make it difficult for them to control the midfield.

Draw

Given the injury concerns and the historical context of tight encounters between these two teams, a draw seems a plausible outcome. Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, and it could be a closely contested match.

Final Prediction

Considering all factors, the most likely outcomes are either a narrow win for Tottenham or a draw. Arsenal's injury concerns, particularly in midfield, could be their undoing, while Tottenham's home advantage and the return of key players give them a slight edge.

Prediction: Double Chance - Tottenham or Draw

This analysis highlights the complexities and uncertainties surrounding this North London Derby, making it a must-watch for football fans.