Tottenham vs Arsenal: Premier League 2024 Pre-Match Analysis

Introduction

The North London Derby between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal is one of the most anticipated fixtures in the Premier League calendar. The match on September 15, 2024, promises to be a thrilling encounter, with both teams looking to assert their dominance early in the season. This analysis will delve into the chances of Tottenham winning, Arsenal winning, or the match ending in a draw, based on various pre-match insights and statistical data.

Tottenham's Chances

Form and Performance

Tottenham's start to the 2024/25 season has been mixed, with one win, one draw, and one defeat from their first three matches. Their recent 2-1 loss to Newcastle United was particularly frustrating, as they dominated possession (65.7%) and had more shots (20) compared to Newcastle's nine. Despite this, they failed to convert their chances, a recurring issue that has plagued them in recent seasons.

Key Players and Injuries

Tottenham's squad has been bolstered by the return of striker Dominic Solanke, who missed the last two games due to an ankle injury. Solanke's presence could be crucial, given his ability to lead the line and score goals. Additionally, Micky van de Ven has recovered from a knee injury, providing stability in defense.

However, there are concerns over the fitness of midfielder Yves Bissouma, who is receiving treatment for a minor issue. Rodrigo Bentancur, despite facing potential disciplinary action for a past misconduct charge, is available for selection.

Tactical Approach

Under Ange Postecoglou, Tottenham has adopted a more attacking style of play. This approach has seen them create numerous chances but also left them vulnerable at the back. Postecoglou has emphasized the need for his team to remain focused and not underestimate Arsenal, despite their injury woes.

Historical Context

Tottenham has struggled in recent North London Derbies, losing five of their last seven Premier League meetings with Arsenal. However, playing at home could provide a slight advantage, as the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has seen the lowest percentage of draws (9%) in Premier League history.

Arsenal's Chances

Form and Performance

Arsenal has had a solid start to the season, although they dropped points in a 1-1 draw against Brighton. The Gunners have been consistent over the past two years, finishing second in the league in consecutive seasons. Their defensive solidity has been a hallmark of their success, conceding the fewest goals in the league last season.

Key Players and Injuries

Arsenal faces a significant challenge with the absence of key players. Declan Rice is suspended following a red card against Brighton, while Martin Ødegaard and Mikel Merino are likely to miss the match due to injuries. These absences leave a void in midfield, which could be exploited by Tottenham's pacey attackers.

Despite these setbacks, Arsenal has depth in their squad. Players like Thomas Partey and Jorginho will need to step up in midfield, while the likes of Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli will be crucial in attack.

Tactical Approach

Mikel Arteta's tactical acumen has been a key factor in Arsenal's recent success. Even with a depleted squad, Arteta is likely to set up his team to be resilient and exploit Tottenham's defensive frailties. Arsenal's set-piece prowess could also be a decisive factor, as they have been effective in such situations in past encounters.

Historical Context

Arsenal has had the upper hand in recent derbies, winning their last two Premier League trips to Tottenham. They have also been effective in scoring first, which has often set the tone for their victories. The Gunners' ability to adapt and fill gaps left by injured players will be tested in this match.

Draw Possibility

Statistical Insights

Historically, the North London Derby has seen both teams score more often than any other fixture in Premier League history (43 times). It is also the fixture where the team that scored first has failed to win the most often (29 times, with 19 draws and 10 losses). This suggests a high likelihood of both teams finding the net and the match being closely contested.

Tactical Balance

Both teams have shown vulnerabilities in defense and the ability to score goals. Tottenham's attacking approach under Postecoglou and Arsenal's set-piece strength could lead to an open game with multiple goals. However, the absence of key players for Arsenal and Tottenham's inconsistent finishing could balance out, leading to a draw.

Venue Factor

The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has seen a low percentage of draws historically, but the intensity and unpredictability of the North London Derby could defy this trend. Both teams will be eager to avoid defeat, which could result in a cautious approach, especially in the latter stages of the match.

Conclusion

Tottenham Win

Tottenham's chances of winning hinge on their ability to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity. The return of key players like Solanke and van de Ven boosts their prospects, but they must overcome their recent poor record in derbies.

Arsenal Win

Arsenal, despite their injury woes, have the tactical nous and squad depth to secure a victory. Their recent form in derbies and defensive resilience make them slight favorites, as indicated by the Opta supercomputer's 43% win probability.

Draw

A draw remains a plausible outcome given the historical context and current form of both teams. The high likelihood of both teams scoring and the potential for a closely contested match make a draw a reasonable prediction.

In summary, while Arsenal appears to have a slight edge, the North London Derby's unpredictable nature means all three outcomes are possible. The match promises to be a thrilling encounter, with both teams having much to prove early in the season.