Pre-Match Analysis: Tottenham vs Arsenal - Premier League 2024

Introduction

The North London Derby between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal is one of the most fiercely contested fixtures in the Premier League. Scheduled for September 15, 2024, this match promises to be a thrilling encounter, with both teams having much to prove. This analysis will delve into the chances of Tottenham winning, Arsenal winning, or the match ending in a draw, based on various pre-match insights and expert opinions.

Tottenham's Chances of Winning

Home Advantage

Tottenham will be playing at their home ground, the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which historically has been a fortress for them in this fixture. According to The Analyst, away wins in the North London Derby are rare, with Arsenal having won their last two trips to Tottenham. However, the absence of key Arsenal players like Declan Rice and Martin Ødegaard gives Spurs a significant advantage. The home crowd's support can be a crucial factor, especially in a high-stakes derby.

Key Players and Form

Tottenham's squad has shown promise under Ange Postecoglou, despite a mixed start to the season. Players like Heung-min Son, who has a prolific record in North London Derbies, and new signings like James Maddison and Micky Van de Ven, could be pivotal. According to talkSPORT, there is a debate about the quality of Tottenham's players, with some experts arguing that players like Pedro Porro and Destiny Udogie are among the best in their positions.

Tactical Approach

Ange Postecoglou's tactical approach has been to dominate possession and create numerous chances. However, as noted by Sky Sports, Spurs have struggled to convert these chances into goals. If they can improve their finishing, they have a good chance of winning. The absence of Arsenal's key midfielders could allow Tottenham to control the midfield and dictate the pace of the game.

Betting Odds

Betting odds from various sources, including Parimatch and Betano, show a slight edge for Tottenham, with enhanced odds of 50/1 for a Tottenham win compared to 40/1 for an Arsenal win. This indicates that bookmakers see Tottenham as having a marginally better chance of winning, especially given the home advantage and Arsenal's injury woes.

Arsenal's Chances of Winning

Recent Form and Away Record

Arsenal have been in excellent form away from home, as highlighted by Sky Sports. They have taken 28 points from a possible 30 away from home in 2024 and have yet to trail on the road this year. Their defense has been particularly strong, conceding just three goals in those 10 games. This solid away form could be a significant factor in their favor.

Key Absences

The absence of Declan Rice and Martin Ødegaard is a massive blow for Arsenal. Rice's suspension and Ødegaard's injury mean that Arsenal will be without two of their most influential players. According to The Analyst, Ødegaard's absence, in particular, could be critical as he is a key player in both attacking and defensive phases for Arsenal.

Tactical Approach

Mikel Arteta is likely to adopt a cautious approach, treating this game like a Champions League knockout match, as suggested by Sky Sports. This means Arsenal will focus on a low-risk strategy, aiming to frustrate Tottenham and capitalize on counter-attacks and set-pieces. This approach has worked well for them in the past, and they have the defensive solidity to execute it effectively.

Betting Odds

Despite the absences, Arsenal are still seen as strong contenders. The enhanced odds of 40/1 for an Arsenal win from Betano indicate that there is still significant belief in their ability to secure a victory, even without some of their key players.

Chances of a Draw

Historical Context

The North London Derby has often been a closely contested affair, with many matches ending in draws. The intense rivalry and the high stakes involved mean that both teams are likely to be cautious, especially in the early stages of the game.

Tactical Stalemate

Given Arsenal's likely defensive approach and Tottenham's issues with converting chances, a draw seems a plausible outcome. Both teams have strong defenses and could cancel each other out, leading to a low-scoring or goalless draw. Sky Sports' prediction of a low-scoring game with under 2.5 goals further supports this possibility.

Expert Opinions

Experts from various platforms, including The Guardian and 101 Great Goals, have highlighted the potential for a draw, given the tactical setups and the current form of both teams. The absence of key players for Arsenal and Tottenham's inconsistency in front of goal make a draw a likely result.

Conclusion

Tottenham Win

• Pros: Home advantage, key Arsenal absences, strong individual performances from players like Son and Maddison.
• Cons: Inconsistent finishing, potential pressure on Postecoglou to deliver a big win.

Arsenal Win

• Pros: Excellent away form, solid defense, tactical acumen of Arteta.
• Cons: Absence of key players like Rice and Ødegaard, potential over-reliance on counter-attacks.

Draw

• Pros: Historical tendency for close matches, tactical stalemate likely, both teams' strong defenses.
• Cons: Lack of decisive attacking play from either side.

In summary, while Tottenham have a slight edge due to home advantage and Arsenal's injury issues, the match is likely to be closely contested. A draw appears to be a highly probable outcome, given the tactical setups and the current form of both teams.