Match Analysis

Pre-Match Analysis: Tottenham vs Arsenal, Premier League 2024

Introduction

The North London Derby between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal is one of the most anticipated fixtures in the Premier League calendar. The match on September 15, 2024, promises to be another thrilling encounter, with both teams looking to assert their dominance early in the season. This analysis will delve into the chances of Tottenham winning, Arsenal winning, or the match ending in a draw, based on various factors such as team form, injuries, historical performance, and tactical considerations.

Historical Context and Recent Form

Historical Performance

Historically, Arsenal has had the upper hand in the North London Derby, especially in recent seasons. Arsenal completed the double over Tottenham last season, including a memorable 3-2 victory where they led 3-0 at halftime. In the last 64 Premier League meetings, Arsenal has secured seven away wins compared to Tottenham's two. This historical dominance gives Arsenal a psychological edge going into the match.

Recent Form

Both teams have had mixed starts to the 2024/25 season. Arsenal has been in impressive form, winning 18 of their last 21 league games and nine of their last 10 away matches. However, they come into this game on the back of a 1-1 draw against Brighton, a match where they played with ten men for over 40 minutes due to Declan Rice's red card.

Tottenham, on the other hand, has had a slower start, picking up just four points from their opening three matches. They have struggled against Big Six teams at home, losing six of their last ten such encounters. This poor home form against top teams could be a significant factor in determining the outcome of the match.

Team News and Injuries

Arsenal

Arsenal will be without key midfielders Declan Rice (suspended) and Martin Odegaard (injured). These absences are significant as both players are crucial to Arsenal's midfield control and creativity. Mikel Arteta may have to rely on Leandro Trossard, who has shown promise but has not been a regular starter, and Kai Havertz, who might drop into a deeper role. The absence of these key players could disrupt Arsenal's usual rhythm and make them more vulnerable in midfield.

Tottenham

Tottenham will be boosted by the return of Dominic Solanke, who is expected to make his home debut. Solanke's presence will add a focal point to Tottenham's attack, which has been somewhat profligate this season. However, Tottenham will miss the services of Yves Bissouma, who picked up an injury on international duty. Rodrigo Bentancur, who has been booked in back-to-back matches, will need to be cautious to avoid further disciplinary issues.

Tactical Analysis

Arsenal's Approach

Arsenal is likely to adopt a more cautious approach given their midfield absences. They may cede some territory and control to limit Tottenham's counter-attacking opportunities. Arsenal's defense, led by William Saliba and Gabriel, has been solid, and they will need to be at their best to handle Tottenham's wide play and crosses aimed at Solanke.

Arsenal's attacking threat will come from their wide players, particularly Bukayo Saka, who has been in excellent form. Saka's ability to draw fouls and create chances will be crucial. Arsenal's set-piece prowess, which was a significant factor in their previous win against Tottenham, could also play a vital role.

Tottenham's Approach

Tottenham, under Ange Postecoglou, will look to exploit Arsenal's weakened midfield. They rank first for high turnovers, indicating their aggressive pressing style. Tottenham's full-backs, who operate as auxiliary number tens, will look to overload the half-spaces and create opportunities for their forwards.

Son Heung-min, who has a strong record in North London Derbies, will be a key player for Tottenham. His ability to exploit spaces and his goal-scoring prowess will be vital. Tottenham's defensive line, led by Micky van de Ven, will need to be wary of Kai Havertz's runs from deep positions.

Key Battles

Dominic Solanke vs Arsenal's Centre-Backs: Solanke's physical presence and goal-scoring instincts will test Saliba and Gabriel. Arsenal's center-backs will need to position themselves astutely to prevent Solanke from capitalizing on crosses.
Thomas Partey & Jorginho vs Tottenham's Playmakers: This midfield battle will be crucial. Partey and Jorginho will need to maintain positional discipline to counter Tottenham's pressing and half-space overloads.
Kai Havertz vs Micky van de Ven: Havertz's runs from deep positions will challenge Van de Ven's defensive capabilities. Arsenal may look to exploit Van de Ven's aerial weaknesses.
Set-Pieces: Arsenal's set-piece efficiency could be a decisive factor, especially given Tottenham's vulnerability in defending set-pieces.

Prediction

Arsenal Win

Arsenal's recent form and historical dominance in the North London Derby give them a slight edge. Despite the absences of Rice and Odegaard, Arsenal's attacking quality and defensive solidity could see them edge out Tottenham. The Gunners' ability to capitalize on set-pieces and Saka's creativity will be crucial.

Tottenham Win

Tottenham's aggressive pressing and the return of Solanke provide them with a significant boost. If Tottenham can exploit Arsenal's weakened midfield and create high turnovers, they have a good chance of securing a victory. Son Heung-min's goal-scoring record in derbies and Tottenham's home advantage could tilt the balance in their favor.

Draw

Given the absences on both sides and the tactical adjustments required, a draw is a plausible outcome. Both teams have the quality to score, but their respective vulnerabilities could cancel each other out. A high-scoring draw, with both teams finding the net, is a likely scenario.

Conclusion

The North London Derby is always unpredictable, and this match is no exception. While Arsenal has the historical edge and recent form, Tottenham's aggressive style and home advantage make them formidable opponents. The absences of key players for Arsenal could level the playing field, making a draw a likely outcome. However, if either team can exploit the other's weaknesses effectively, they could secure a crucial victory.